Glassnode: Is the Metaverse doomed? On-chain data tells you the answer.

Source: Glassnode; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance

This week, we introduced another exploration for CBD use cases - analyzing metaverse tokens. Despite the price decline and the fading hype, on-chain data indicates that major investors remain active, steadily accumulating and lowering their cost basis.

Does this signal a long-term bet on the recovery of the metaverse? Let's first review how to analyze and interpret CBD data, and then apply this knowledge to the latest trends in the metaverse.

Understanding the Cost Base Distribution

Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) tracks the position of token supply concentration based on the average cost basis of holders. By analyzing the changes in supply distribution, we can identify investor behavior — whether they are accumulating, selling, or reallocating their holdings.

How to interpret the CBD heat map:

• Color Intensity (Supply Distribution)

Warm colors (red/yellow) indicate a high concentration of supply within a given price range, while cool colors (blue/green) indicate a lower supply volume.

• Vertical Axis (Cost Base)

Each horizontal slice represents the price range of the last movement of a portion of the supply, showing how holders adjust their cost basis over time.

Tracking these changes helps us identify potential market turning points, where accumulation or distribution trends may indicate future price movements.

Metaverse Tokens: What the Cost Basis Distribution Data Reveals

In this analysis, we focus on metaverse tokens – The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Axie Infinity (AXS) – They were one of the most prominent assets during the metaverse boom in 2021. While the hype around the metaverse has subsided, our focus has shifted away from user activity and instead uses the Cost Base Distribution (CBD) data to examine investor behavior.

We are not evaluating adoption metrics or in-game activities, but rather analyzing how token holders adjust their positions over time. Are they selling off, holding steady, or accumulating at lower prices? By tracking the supply changes at different price levels, we can gain insights into how investor sentiment evolves during the post-hype phase, and whether accumulation trends suggest long-term confidence in these projects.

The Sandbox (SAND): Steady accumulation in a bear market

Despite price fluctuations, on-chain data shows that accumulation is still continuing. Holders with firm beliefs are steadily increasing their positions, enhancing their confidence in the project's long-term potential.

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Decentraland (MANA): Buy on dips

The supply concentration has significantly increased, reaching around 0.60 dollars, reflecting an increase in buying activity after the price drop. This indicates that investors view the price decline as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of further decline.

Axie Infinity (AXS): Long-term confidence remains strong

Despite the ongoing downtrend, on-chain data shows a significant increase in positions. This pattern indicates that certain investors remain confident in the future of Axie Infinity.

Will the Metaverse Revive?

Speculative hype around the metaverse may have faded, but on-chain activity indicates otherwise. The continued accumulation of major metaverse tokens suggests that many investors see these projects as undervalued opportunities rather than failures.

Does this lay the foundation for a future recovery? Although price trends remain uncertain, the data shows that confidence among major market participants is still strong—they are positioning themselves accordingly.